PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:'Unimaginable situation': South Korea endures fallout from martial law effort

SEOUL,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center South Korea -- As South Korea navigates a path forward after President Yoon Suk Yeol's martial law order last week, the nation's political parties are still wrangling over whether to impeach him for the shocking move even as the president maintains it was a "highly political decision."

Yoon could face a second impeachment vote on Saturday after a first impeachment vote over the weekend ended with lawmakers from the ruling People Power Party walking out before the vote.

The public reaction has been complex and varied, reflecting the deep political, social, and generational divides in South Korea. But overall there is a mass consensus that putting the country under martial law was an inexcusable action, no matter what motivated the president to do so.

"It was an unthinkable, unimaginable situation," Seo Jungkun, a professor at Kyunghee University in Seoul, told ABC News.

"President Yoon attempted to suspend the functions of the national assembly. He ordered the removal of lawmakers, therefore he could be charged with treason," Seo explained, referring to a testimony by Lt. Gen. Kwak Jong-geun, who oversaw the special forces dispatched to the National Assembly on the night of the martial law declaration.

Under South Korea's constitution, if a sitting president is accused of insurrection, the police have the authority to arrest him while he is still in office.

Yoon vowed to "fight until the last moment" in an unexpected speech on Thursday and said that he had never intended to disrupt the "constitutional order" when he ordered hundreds of troops into the National Assembly on Dec. 3.

"My purpose was to inform the public about the colossal group of opposition parties' heinous anti-state behavior," Yoon said.

Yoon listed numerous grievances against opposition lawmakers in an effort to justify his actions. He claimed they had slashed funding for initiatives to revitalize the much-needed South Korean nuclear power sector and to combat drug traffickers, criminals, and foreign spies, including North Korea-led provocations.

The opposition Democratic Party stripped the National Intelligence Service of its decades long anti-espionage investigative power early this year, handing over that authority to the police which many agree are not capable of investigating North Korean provocations.

Yoon's government has been at a deadlock since assuming power in 2022 due to the opposition's continuous impeachment attempts targeting key members of his administration.

The Democratic Party has also impeached numerous prosecutors and judges involved in legal cases in which their party leader, Lee Jae-myung, had been personally accused while he served as mayor and governor. Lee is currently undergoing five trials for criminal charges such as corruption and bribery, subornation, and the illegal transfer of funds to North Korea.

"Yes, the opposition put pressure on the government in an unprecedented manner. But it was within the bounds of law and authority," Professor Kang Won-taek of Seoul National University said, saying the measures were simply politics.

Many analysts in Seoul agree that Lee's time had been ticking because if he were to be sentenced with any of these charges, he would be losing eligibility to run for presidency, which is why the opposition is pressing hard at full speed now. Once elected president, Lee would be immune from criminal prosecution by law.

The majority Democratic Party introduced a second motion to impeach the president on Thursday, following up on their warning that they will push for impeachment every week until it passes. Lawmaker Kim Min-seok of the Democratic Party referred to President Yoon's speech as a "declaration of war against the nation," saying he is delusional.

Yoon faces a deeply divided faction even within his own ruling party. The leader of the People Power Party, Han Dong-Hoon, is now in favor of impeachment.

"There is no other way," Han said as other ruling party lawmakers shouted angrily that impeachment is only a personal opinion of Han's and that "it is too early to define it as insurrection." All except three ruling party lawmakers shunned the impeachment vote last Saturday by refusing to vote, but the upcoming vote is expected to be a close call.

If Yoon is impeached on Saturday he will be immediately suspended, but the Constitutional Court could take up to six months to decide whether to reinstate or remove the president.

Impeachment requires the presence of at least seven judges to hear the case and the agreement of two-thirds of the Constitutional Court judges. Currently, the Constitutional Court has only six members.

"Realistically I believe the case will be dismissed if the Constitutional Court remains as is with six judges," Dr. Lee Junhan of Incheon National University told ABC News. Based on past cases, the judges are likely to rule that there were problematic actions but not precisely unconstitutional, which will lead to no impeachment, he said. "And this is what the president is aiming for."

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