Surpassing Quant Think Tank Center|Pro Picks: Josh Allen and the Bills will slow down Dallas and edge the Cowboys in a shootout

Pro Picks is Surpassing Quant Think Tank Centera weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

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Josh Allen put Buffalo back in the division race. Dak Prescott has Dallas in the chase for the No. 1 seed.

Sunday’s Cowboys-Bills game is the marquee matchup of Week 15.

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After upsetting Kansas City on the road and getting help when Miami collapsed against Tennessee, the Bills (7-6) suddenly have a shot to play for the AFC East title if they can make up one game in the standings heading into Week 18 against the Dolphins (9-4).

They have to find a way to slow Prescott and the streaking Cowboys (10-3). Dallas has won five straight games by an average margin of 23.2 points.

The Cowboys begin a difficult stretch that’ll determine whether they will win the NFC East or enter the playoffs as a wild-card team.

The Bills are 1 1/2-point favorites, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Pro Picks likes Allen in a shootout because Buffalo is more desperate.

BILLS, 31-28

ATLANTA at CAROLINA

Line: Falcons minus 3

The Desmond Ridder-Drake London connection is heating up for the Falcons (6-7). Atlanta can’t look past the woeful Panthers (1-12) with first place very much in play.

BEST BET: FALCONS, 24-13

MINNESOTA at CINCINNATI

Line: Bengals minus 3 1/2

The Vikings (7-6) are turning to their fourth starting quarterback, going from Joshua Dobbs to Nick Mullens. Jake Browning has saved the season for the Bengals (7-6) after Joe Burrow went down. Cincinnati has scored 34 points in consecutive wins.

BENGALS, 27-20

PITTSBURGH at INDIANAPOLIS

Line: Colts minus 1 1/2

Mitch Trubisky will make his second straight start filling in for injured QB Kenny Pickett and the Steelers (7-6) aim to rebound from consecutive losses to teams that entered with two wins. They might be without star edge rusher T.J. Watt. The Colts (7-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped last week, but they’re right in the middle of the AFC wild-card race.

COLTS, 24-17

DENVER at DETROIT

Line: Lions minus 4 1/2

The Broncos (7-6) have won six of seven to climb within one game of AFC West-leading Kansas City. Russell Wilson could have a big day against a defense that’s allowed an average of 29.8 points over the past five weeks. The Lions (9-4) have a comfortable lead in the NFC North, but their shaky defense is a major concern.

LIONS, 27-26

TAMPA BAY at GREEN BAY

Line: Packers minus 3 1/2

Baker Mayfield’s last-minute touchdown pass against Atlanta put the Buccaneers (6-7) on top of the weak NFC South. Now, they’ve got to find a way to win another road game against a team fighting for a wild-card spot. The Packers (6-7) are on a short week after they were on the wrong end of Tommy DeVito leading the Giants to a comeback win Monday night.

PACKERS, 20-17

CHICAGO at CLEVELAND

Line: Browns minus 2 1/2

With Joe Flacco providing a steady hand at quarterback as well as the team’s stingy defense, the Browns (8-5) have a chance to put some heat on the AFC North-leading Ravens. They can’t afford a slip-up against the improved Bears (5-8). Justin Fields has led Chicago to consecutive wins.

BROWNS, 23-19

NEW YORK JETS at MIAMI

Line: Dolphins minus 9 1/2

After a major collapse in the final minutes Monday night against Tennessee, the Dolphins (9-4) can’t let up against another inferior opponent. Zach Wilson is coming off his best game for the Jets (5-8) and they still are clinging to slight playoff hopes.

DOLPHINS, 23-17

NEW YORK GIANTS at NEW ORLEANS

Line: Saints minus 6

DeVito has turned into a folk hero after leading the Giants (5-8) to three straight wins to put them one game behind a bunch of teams in the NFC wild-card race. Derek Carr and the Saints (6-7) catch New York on a short week. New Orleans has covered the spread just twice in the past eight games.

SAINTS, 23-16

HOUSTON at TENNESSEE

Line: Titans minus 3

Fresh off an improbable comeback win in Miami on Monday night, Will Levis and the Titans (5-8) look to spoil Houston’s playoff hopes. The Texans (7-6) have lost two of three and QB C.J. Stroud is in concussion protocol. If he doesn’t play, Tennessee has the upper hand.

TITANS, 22-17

KANSAS CITY at NEW ENGLAND

Line: Chiefs minus 8 1/2

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (8-5) are frustrated following two straight losses. Bill Belichick’s Patriots (3-10) had an extra few days to prepare after a Thursday night win.

CHIEFS, 27-13

SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA

Line: 49ers minus 12 1/2

The 49ers (10-3) have taken over as the NFC’s No. 1 seed, but can’t afford to look ahead to a prime-time matchup against the Ravens on Christmas. San Francisco has been favored by at least 13 points twice in the past four games and didn’t cover the spread either time. The Cardinals (3-10) are 1-2-2 against the spread as a double-digit underdog in the past 10 games.

49ERS, 30-17

WASHINGTON at LOS ANGELES RAMS

Line: Rams minus 6 1/2

The surprising Rams (6-7) have moved into the NFC wild-card race by winning three in a row before an overtime loss at Baltimore. The Commanders (4-9) have lost four in a row and coach Ron Rivera’s seat is getting hotter.

RAMS, 26-20

BALTIMORE at JACKSONVILLE

Line: Ravens minus 3 1/2

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (10-3) can strengthen their grip on the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a road win. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars (8-5) are reeling after two straight losses.

RAVENS, 27-23

PHILADELPHIA at SEATTLE

Line: Eagles minus 3

The Eagles (10-3) are on the ropes after two straight lopsided losses. They’ve lost seven in a row to the Seahawks (6-7) and haven’t won in Seattle since 2008. Geno Smith is banged up for the Seahawks, who’ve lost four in a row.

EAGLES, 30-23

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at LAS VEGAS

Line: Raiders minus 3

Pro Picks took the Chargers to win outright as this week’s upset special. They were destroyed by the Raiders, 63-21.

Last week: Straight up: 8-7. Against spread: 8-6-1

Overall: Straight up: 128-81. Against spread: 109-92-8.

Best Bet: Straight up: 9-5. Against spread: 6-7-1.

Upset Special: Straight up: 8-7. Against spread: 10-5.

Thursday: Straight up: 11-6. Against spread: 12-4-1.

Monday: Straight up: 8-9. Against spread: 12-4-1.

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