SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:Perfect no more, Rangers suddenly face ALCS test: 'Nobody said it was gonna be easy'

ARLINGTON,SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center Texas – Through three series and seven games, the Texas Rangers’ best strategy was simply not to lose.

Now, before dusting off the maxim that you do, in fact, play to win the game, the Rangers’ undefeated blitz through the American League playoffs didn’t just put them on the verge of a World Series trip.

It also minimized perhaps their biggest liability.

Now, however, there’s no camouflaging the Rangers’ back-end rotation question marks – and suddenly, Max Scherzer is among the biggest.

The future Hall of Famer pitched in his first game in five weeks and, rather than bury the Houston Astros, instead breathed life into the defending World Series champions.

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Lacking his usual command on his pitches after returning from a 37-day layoff due to a shoulder strain, Scherzer was knocked around for five runs in four innings and was no match for Astros playoff virtuoso Cristian Javier, who took a no-hitter into the fifth inning Wednesday night at Globe Life Field. The Astros won Game 3 of this American League Championship Series 8-5, and while they still trail 2-1 in the series, are likely comforted by the next question facing the Rangers.

What do we do tomorrow?

Texas stormed through the AL wild-card series and Division Series and claimed the first two games of this ALCS because seasoned playoff vet Nathan Eovaldi and left-hander Jordan Montgomery were able to start five of their seven games.

But the best-of-seven format leaves nowhere to hide on the roster. And the Scherzer gambit – he pitched a pair of simulated games, getting up to 69 pitches before the Rangers tapped their famously intense mercenary to start – failed badly.

RECAP OF GAME 3:Scherzer stumbles, Javier shines in 8-5 conquest

His belly flop begs the question: Are the Rangers, unbeaten 24 hours ago, suddenly in trouble?

“Nobody said it was going to be easy,” says Rangers designated hitter Mitch Garver. “And certainly nobody thought we were going to go out and win all the way through.”

“There were going to be a few bumps.”

Will it suddenly become a pothole?

The Rangers will turn to left-hander Andrew Heaney to start Game 4, though a cast of many is more realistic. Though Heaney totes a 4.15 ERA, Texas loves his consummate bulldog mentality, and he got the Game 1 assignment in the ALDS at Baltimore, recording 11 outs before giving way to Dane Dunning.

The Rangers gutted out a 3-2 win, in hindsight, perhaps their biggest this postseason, and a Heaney-Dunning piggyback will likely unfold once again.

But these aren’t the Orioles. Houston has an .845 OPS against left-handed starters, compared to .732 against righties, and the beast awoke on Wednesday in one of its favorite habitats.

The Astros improved to 7-1 this year at the Rangers’ $1.2 billion playpen, and in their past four games here they've outscored the Rangers 47-15. Kyle Tucker, dropped to sixth in the lineup, reached base four times.

It all dovetails with Houston’s 54-30 road record this year (including playoffs), compared to 40-45 at Minute Maid Park.

“I asked the team in spring training to be the best road team,” says Astros manager Dusty Baker. “Maybe I should have asked them to be the best road and home team.

“They usually give me what I ask for.”

The lone bit of solace the Rangers can take is the Astros face a similar Game 4 quandary. Baker ultimately opted for right-hander Jose Urquidy to oppose Heaney; like Heaney, Urquidy had a undesirable regular season ERA (5.29), but started and won an ALDS game, pitching into the sixth inning of a 3-2 series-clinching Game 4 triumph.

For both teams, comfort is just around the corner: Montgomery and Eovaldi are lined up for Games 5 and, if necessary, 6, while playoff-seasoned Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez await for the Astros.

In Game 4, both teams confront the same concept: Get there.

It wouldn’t be a stretch to suggest Thursday’s winner wins the series. Up 3-1, the Rangers would have three shots to close out the Astros. Tied 2-2 but with all the momentum, the Astros’ seven-year run of dominance would suddenly feel very heavy among the 42,000-plus crowding into Globe Life.

As for Scherzer, he can only hope the Rangers need him for a World Series start or, in a less optimal scenario, Game 7 of the ALCS. It was somewhat of a victory that he got on the mound this October at all.

Yet those triumphs only count so much this time of year.

“In general, I thought I located the ball pretty well for a layoff. But, this is the postseason,” says Scherzer. “There are no excuses. You either win or lose. Tonight, we lost.

“We’re judged by wins and losses right now. We need to win. That’s how this game goes.”

This game went like this: A Scherzer wild pitch scored the Astros’ first run, followed by a fastball that No. 9 hitter Martin Maldonado smoked for a two-run single and 3-0 lead in the second inning. Jose Altuve crushed another fastball for his 25^th career postseason homer – enough damage to make Javier’s latest postseason gem a breeze.

The three other hits Scherzer gave up all came on sliders, and all either came around to score or drove in a run.

“They’re a great team, a great lineup. They can punish anybody,” says Scherzer. “We got punished tonight.

“But there’s a lot of fight in this team and we’re going to come out fighting.”

And suddenly, perfect has given way to perturbed – with Game 4 looming much larger.