SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:Overseas voters are the latest target in Trump’s false narrative on election fraud

Donald Trump this week claimed without evidence that anyone living overseas can SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Centerget a ballot mailed to them, even if they are not eligible to vote, falsely accusing Democrats of subverting a 1986 law to win in November.

The former Republican president’s allegation focuses on the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act, or UOCAVA, which protects the rights of U.S. citizens living abroad, including members of the military and their families, to vote in federal elections by absentee ballot. UOCAVA was amended in 2009 by the Military and Overseas Voter Empowerment Act, or MOVE, which added more protections.

Trump claimed that Democrats will “use UOCAVA to get ballots, a program that emails ballots overseas without any citizenship check or verification of identity, whatsoever” and that “anyone can get a ballot emailed to them!” Trump also suggested that this might indicate “foreign interference” in the 2024 election.

“The Democrats are talking about how they’re working so hard to get millions of votes from Americans living overseas,” he posted Monday on his Truth Social platform. “Actually, they are getting ready to CHEAT!”

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This latest accusation builds on similar election-related falsehoods Trump and other Republicans have pushed repeatedly since the 2020 race — that noncitizens are voting en masse, for example, or that ballot drop boxes facilitate voter fraud.

Experts say the goal is to prime the conversation, sowing doubt about the U.S. election system in case Trump doesn’t win.

“These types of false claims are typical of the broader disinformation campaign to sow doubt in the security of our elections and will most definitely continue,” said Michelle Ciulla Lipkin, executive director of the National Association for Media Literacy Education. “At this point, it’s a pretty obvious playbook, which is why people have to be very critical of the messages they receive about elections and that they go to their election officials for reliable information.”

Representatives for Trump did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Local election officials verify the identity and eligibility of those abroad who register to vote absentee, contrary to Trump’s claim, just as they would for anyone living in the U.S.

Individuals register and request ballots by sending a Federal Post Card Application, or FPCA, to the election office in their state of voting residence — often the address at which they last lived in the U.S. They must submit the FPCA each year to receive absentee ballots for all elections held during that time.

All voters, including those overseas, must confirm under penalty of perjury that they are U.S. citizens when they sign their registration form. A 1996 U.S. law makes it illegal for noncitizens to vote in federal elections. Violators can be fined or imprisoned for up to a year. They can also be deported.

When local election offices receive an FPCA, they verify the registrant’s identity, typically by using their driver’s license, state ID or social security number. Federal law requires states to regularly maintain their voter rolls and remove anyone who is ineligible.

“Elections are administered by state and local election offices who process absentee voter registrations and ballot requests, send ballots to voters, and receive and process voted ballots,” said Scott Wiedmann, the director of the Federal Voting Assistance Program, which administers UOCAVA. “The election officials are the final arbiter as to whether a voter meets the eligibility requirements to vote in their jurisdiction.”

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Eligible voters will receive a blank absentee ballot prior to each election and request how they prefer it to be sent, including by email. Overseas voters can always participate in federal elections. Some states may also allow them to vote in state and local races.

There were approximately 4.4 million U.S. citizens living abroad in 2022, according to the Federal Voting Assistance Program’s most recent data. About 2.8 million of those people were of voting age. An estimated 94,927 votes were cast in the 2022 general election by this population. That number was higher during the last presidential election in 2020, with 224,139 votes cast out of approximately 2.5 million citizens of voting age.

“In over 25 years of working in elections, in both Republican and Democratic administrations, and with election officials of both parties, I don’t recall any of them, or any elected leader from either party, ever denigrating this important program, until Trump’s false claims this week,” said David Becker, the founder and executive director of The Center for Election Innovation and Research.

Becker added, referring to UOCAVA, that “every candidate and campaign knows of its existence, and then-President Trump’s administration oversaw its enforcement during his entire term.”

Pamela Smith, president and CEO of Verified Voting, agreed that “ensuring these voters can vote has never been controversial. I should say, never before.”

Though research shows that there have been instances of noncitizen voting over the years across the U.S., it’s exceedingly rare, in part because of the risk involved.

States have mechanisms to prevent it, though there isn’t one standard protocol they all follow. Valencia Richardson, legal counsel for voting rights at the Campaign Legal Center, told The Associated Press in July that there are many ways to confirm citizenship, such as checking department of motor vehicle records, asking the secretary of state’s office or getting in touch with the voter themselves.

A small number of local jurisdictions, among them San Francisco and the District of Columbia, have begun allowing immigrants who aren’t citizens to vote in some local contests, such as for school board and city council.

False claims like the one offered by Trump build on existing fears about voter fraud and illegal immigration while taking advantage of distrust in the media and the public’s lack of familiarity with election laws.

“Laying the groundwork for a conspiracy theory means that you need to weave many claims together,” Kathleen Carley, a misinformation expert and researcher at Carnegie Mellon University’s CyLab Security and Privacy Institute, wrote in an email. “In that sense, this story about UOCAVA lays the groundwork for, and would help substantiate, a conspiracy theory around Democrats stealing the election.”