SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:Mavericks advance with Game 6 win, but Thunder have promising future

The SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank CenterOklahoma City Thunder are disappointed.

And they should be. Their season is over after losing to the Dallas Mavericks 117-116 in Game 6 Saturday of their Western Conference semifinal series.

The Mavericks advanced to the conference finals, where they will face the winner of Sunday’s Game 7 between Minnesota and Denver.

Mavs forward P.J. Washington made two free throws with 2.5 seconds left in the fourth quarter to win the game. Dallas outscored Oklahoma City 69-52 in the second half, and Mavs star Luka Doncic recorded a triple-double with 29 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. Kyrie Irving and Derrick Jones Jr. each scored 22 points for Dallas.

Dallas is making its second appearance in the conference finals in three seasons. The Mavs’ collective experience, especially with Doncic and Irving, and the trade deadline acquisitions of Washington and Daniel Gafford, managed the moment.

The loss stings, but it wasn’t a disappointing season for the Thunder, and perspective is necessary for one of the NBA's youngest teams that has one of its brightest futures.

Let’s take a step back. In 2022-23, the Thunder finished 10th in the West at 40-42, made the play-in game but did not win two games to qualify for the playoffs. This season, Oklahoma City improved by 17 wins to finish 57-25, earning the top seed in the West, and the Thunder were one of two teams (Boston was the other) to finish in the top four in offensive and defensive efficiency.

It can be argued the Thunder were ahead of schedule this season, and the front office and coaching staff took a measured approach to the regular-season success. They had players with little or no playoff experience, and expecting a roster like that to zoom straight through to the conference finals or even NBA Finals was not a given.

The playoffs are often about lessons learned and figuring out what’s required not only to win a game but win a series. It’s an old-school notion, but it took teams like the 1980s Pistons and 1990s Bulls multiple playoff defeats before they broke through and won a championship. Teams absorb those lessons, come back stronger and apply what was learned to future series.

The good news for the Thunder and their fans: they’re going to be in the hunt for the next several seasons with MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (36 points in Game 6), Rookie of the Year runner-up Chet Holmgren, potential All-Star Jalen Williams and 2023-24 Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault. Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Josh Giddey, Isaiah Joe, Jaylin Williams and Cason Wallace round out a strong squad. The Thunder have all those players under contract or can have them under contract for next season.

Thunder executive vice president and general manager Sam Presti has considerable draft assets with which to improve the roster. He has multiple first-round picks to either use the picks or trade them to acquire players who can help immediately. Oklahoma City needs interior depth for scoring and rebounding and help with perimeter wings around Gilgeous-Alexander.

The Thunder may also have cap space and salary cap exceptions to dabble in the free-agent market.

They are in great position. And while they were ahead of schedule this season, they have set expectations for next season, and it includes more than a first-round series victory.